Cuba imported 55,615 barrels of oil per day (bpd) from Venezuela in 2023. The figure represents 8% of the national production of Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (Pdvsa) that year, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.

The Venezuelan post-electoral crisis and fraud allegations in the elections held on July 28, 2024, have Havana on edge, as a vital oil supply is at risk. In May 2024, imports rose to 70,000 bpd, compared to the 23,000 bpd that arrived from Caracas the previous month. This is well above the 55,000 bpd observed throughout 2023.

The Venezuelan opposition has made its position clear regarding the commercial exchange between the two countries. In November 2023, leader María Corina Machado stated at a press conference that the supply would only continue if the Cuban government paid for it.

Meanwhile, Edmundo Gonzalez said that bilateral relations between the two states would be “reviewed” once they take power.

“We must review relations with Cuba, because it is not just about the SAIME issue (Cuban involvement in the Automated Identification, Migration, and Immigration Service), but also about the involvement ports and airports, national ID registration, intelligence services… there is a broad range of cooperation that will have to be reviewed in light of the current moment,” Gonzalez said in an interview.

The exchange between the two countries goes beyond fuel supply and also involves transport via an oil tanker fleet. In June 2024, Reuters revealed the use of tankers that travel off the radar to avoid identification at a time when the state fleets of both governments are reduced due to breakdowns and are docked due to US economic sanctions.

The terms of the oil exchange between Cuba and Venezuela were updated in September 2023, when the state companies Unión Cuba-Petróleo (Cupet) and Pdvsa signed a cooperation agreement for the exploration, production, and refining of hydrocarbons.

Although Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba have decreased by more than 30% since 2020—when the supply averaged 80,000 barrels per day—a study by the Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) of elTOQUE indicates that, by the end of 2022, Venezuela accounted for 75% of Cuba’s fuel imports.

The Cuban government compensated for the reduction of Venezuelan oil by establishing Mexico as a major commercial ally. The island secured shipments from Mexico of 16,800 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) and 3,300 barrels of petroleum products for a total of nearly 400 million dollars in 2023 alone. The terms of those shipments have not been public.

The Cuban government was quick to congratulate Nicolas Maduro just hours after the National Electoral Council declared him the winner in the presidential elections, in a bid to preserve the commercial relationship with Venezuela.

“I spoke with brother Nicolas Maduro to convey warm congratulations on behalf of the Communist Party, the Government, and the population for the historic electoral victory achieved, following an impressive demonstration by the Venezuelan people,” stated Miguel Diaz-Canel on his social network.

As the political situation in Venezuela remains uncertain and international pressure intensifies, the Cuban government faces the challenge of seeking alternatives to meet its growing fuel needs in markets outside of Venezuela.

This article was translated into English from the original in Spanish.