November 5, 2024, will be the last day US citizens can exercise their right to vote for the President of the United States for the 2025-2029 term. The main candidates are former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, although there are more options on the ballot.

But whom do Cubans prefer?

When it comes to personal preferences and assessments in uncertain scenarios, there isn’t one correct answer. For this reason, when discussing preferences and probabilities in the electoral arena, it’s advisable to first focus on the priorities of those eligible to vote.

To vote in the United States, one must be a citizen, be at least 18 years old (or turn 18 in the election year), and be registered to vote.

According to a survey by the Cuban Research Institute (CRI) at Florida International University, of the more than 1.5 million Cubans residing in the US, primarily in Florida, only about half (approximately 705,000) are registered to vote in that state. These 705,000 voters represent about 35% of the Hispanic electorate in the so-called “Sunshine State.”

Moreover, the majority of the Cuban-American voting community does not follow the typical voting patterns of the Latino electorate in the United States.

Generally, most Hispanic voters tend to favor Democratic Party candidates. In the 2016 and 2020 elections, 66% of Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate; in 2012, the percentage was even higher, with 71% voting in favor of Barack Obama.

However, most Cuban-American voters in the US identify as “Republican.” In fact, of the roughly 705,000 Cubans registered to vote in Florida, approximately 54% are registered as Republicans. Additionally, a CRI survey released in mid-October 2024 found that around 68% of Cuban-Americans eligible to vote plan to vote for Donald Trump in this election.

Political Diversification of the Cuban-American Community

The prospective figure of 68% of Cuban-American voters planning to vote for Donald Trump illustrates both a unique feature of the US electoral system and the political diversification that the Cuban-American community has experienced in recent years.

In the United States, being registered with a particular party does not obligate you to vote for that party’s candidate. You also have the option to register as an “independent” voter. This characteristic may explain why, even though 54% of Cuban-Americans are registered as Republicans, 68% — according to the CRI survey — intend to vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

This number also reflects the political diversification of the Cuban-American community in recent years. In the 1980s and 1990s, the vast majority of the Cuban-American community was affiliated with and supported the Republican Party. However, over time, Democrats began to make inroads among second-generation US-born Cubans, reaching significant levels of support during the Obama era.

In recent times, however, “independence” has also gained ground within the Cuban community, and currently, approximately 30% of Cuban-Americans identify as “independents,” according to CRI’s analysis.

The survey reveals two important conclusions. First, although Republicans remain the majority, they no longer enjoy absolute hegemony within the Cuban-American community. Additionally, while Democrats have made inroads in the community’s preferences, after Donald Trump’s ascent to the presidency in 2016, they have never regained the level of support they enjoyed during the Obama-Biden administration.

The biggest winner among Cuban-American voters in recent years has been registering as “independents.”

Grim Prospects for Kamala Despite the Diversification

Despite the political diversification within the Cuban-American community, Kamala Harris faces a significant challenge in winning their support in the 2024 elections. The economy (and inflation in particular) has become a central issue in the current presidential race. Harris bears the stigma of being part of an administration whose economic performance is negatively rated by 72% of Cuban-American voters in Florida.

Additionally, 77% of Cuban-Americans disapprove of Joe Biden’s policy on Cuba. According to the CRI survey, on the main topics of the electoral agenda, the majority of Cuban-Americans rate the Biden-Harris administration’s performance negatively.

However, there is one Biden administration policy that appears to be viewed positively by most Cubans: the implementation of the humanitarian parole program in 2023. According to the survey, more than 70% of Cuban-Americans in Florida see the measure as positive.

Yet, the program has faced delays from the administration in the months leading up to the election. After an investigation began in July 2024 into potential fraud related to tens of thousands of sponsors, the program was suspended in early August. Although it was reactivated at the end of the same month, the number of resolved cases remains well below the commitments the government made when it launched the program.

This article was translated into English from the original in Spanish.